Home Store About Contact
Affiliate Program Contact Privacy Policy Terms of Service

Get the free sample of the conversation

or Buy the book

39 Mainstream Sources vs “The Emissary” Predictions: 2025 Reality Check - Part 1

Video Poster Image

References

  1. In the US, trust in the federal government is near historic lows: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/12/04/public-trust-in-government-1958-2025/
  2. Biden’s presidency ended with very low average approval: https://news.gallup.com/poll/655298/biden-job-approval-second-lowest-among-post-wwii-presidents.aspx
  3. Internationally, 2024 was a year where voters in dozens of countries expressed frustration: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/12/11/global-elections-in-2024-what-we-learned-in-a-year-of-political-disruption/
  4. US Consumer Price Index hit 9.1% (in June 2022), the highest in 40+ years: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm
  5. Global inflation and growth dynamics are tracked by the IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025
  6. IMF Fiscal Monitor messaging in 2025 warned global public debt risks were worsening: https://mediacenter.imf.org/news/imf---october-2025-fiscal-monitor/s/a770da3b-295d-41ec-b133-41ba455e02b0
  7. Total global debt hit new records in 2025: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mature-markets-push-global-debt-record-near-346-trillion-says-iif-2025-12-09/
  8. Lebanon is a clear case of prolonged financial and currency collapse: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-unveils-first-draft-law-recover-deposits-since-financial-crash-2025-12-19/
  9. Pew’s polarization and political violence perception reporting shows many Americans believe politically motivated violence is rising: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/23/americans-say-politically-motivated-violence-is-increasing-and-they-see-many-reasons-why/
  10. On the “bigger than one country” level: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46581-5
  11. Some datasets show certain forms of social trust are stable or even improving in parts of Europe: https://www.pewresearch.org/2025/05/08/americans-trust-in-one-another/
  12. World Health Organization reported significant health service disruptions: https://www.who.int/news/item/10-04-2025-countries-are-already-experiencing-significant-health-system-disruptions---who
  13. Workforce shortages and capacity constraints are widely documented as a structural strainor (especially post COVID): https://www.who.int/teams/health-workforce
  14. Strain, disruptions, and capacity problems by 2025: https://www.who.int/news/item/10-04-2025-countries-are-already-experiencing-significant-health-system-disruptions---who
  15. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cross country trust survey results show low trust: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/06/government-at-a-glance-2025_70e14c6c/full-report/levels-of-trust-in-public-institutions_62a3b94e.html
  16. Edelman’s Trust Barometer also frames the period as a trust crisis, measured across institutions and countries: https://www.edelman.com/trust/2025/trust-barometer
  17. Trust in news widely described as low or declining in many countries: https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2025/dnr-executive-summary
  18. IISS’s global conflict review: https://www.iiss.org/publications/armed-conflict-survey/2025/armed-conflict-survey-2025/
  19. The Indo Pacific risk picture sharpened: https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF
  20. Russia deploying a nuclear capable missile system to Belarus: https://apnews.com/article/cd2ff4b142402634aff9535cd94f5f79
  21. Germany and UK talk about reintroducing drafting: https://netherlands.news-pravda.com/en/world/2025/12/23/10235.html
  22. Food crises:
    https://www.wfp.org/publications/global-report-food-crises-grfc
  23. Hotspot early warning:
    https://www.fightfoodcrises.net/sites/default/files/resource/file/CD7310EN.pdf
  24. Water stress and drought impacts:
    https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2025-07/Drought%20Hotspots%202023-2025_ENG.pdf
  25. Energy security was back at center stage: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025
  26. Food and water stress will likely keep clustering around conflict zones and fragile states: https://www.fightfoodcrises.net/sites/default/files/resource/file/CD7310EN.pdf
  27. Energy is less about absolute global shortage and more about disruption and price spikes driven by chokepoints, sanctions, and attacks on infrastructure: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2025
  28. Concrete example of fragility: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-no-longer-has-famine-says-global-hunger-monitor-2025-12-19/
  29. Nuclear risk language is no longer “Cold War nostalgia.” https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/nuclear-risks-grow-new-arms-race-looms-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now
  30. Policy and research discussions increasingly focus on escalation pathways and risk reduction, not just deterrence: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2025/risk-reduction-urgently-needed-amid-rising-tensions-northern-europe
  31. Energy Agency explicitly flags electricity system vulnerability to cyber and other hazards: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025/executive-summary
  32. Terrorism remains tightly coupled to conflict environments. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2025.pdf
  33. Europol’s TE-SAT continues to report on a broad threat spectrum in Europe: https://www.europol.europa.eu/publication-events/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-2025-eu-te-sat
  34. Will terror style attacks and plots persist or rise in some regions? https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2025.pdf
  35. Will terror style attacks and plots persist or rise in some regions? https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2025.pdf
  36. Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War: https://www.netflix.com/title/81614129
  37. FRONTLINE: Strike on Iran: The Nuclear Question: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/topic/war-and-conflict/
  38. Al Jazeera People and Power: Thirst Among the Ruins: https://www.aljazeera.com/video/people-power/2025/3/20/thirst-among-the-ruins 
  39. BBC Eye: Gaza: Dying for Food: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8YL_Datm0